Mapping Legends: A Cartographic Narrative and Deductive GIS Analysis of the Padres’ Lost Silver Story
Presentation Time: Tue, 05/05/2026 - 14:00
Keywords: historical GIS, least-cost path analysis, mule transport, Mogollon Rim, Spanish silver
This study examines the Padres’ Lost Silver legend as a cartographic narrative and evaluates its geographic plausibility through GIS-based modeling of eighteenth-century mule transport across the American Southwest. The narrative describes a mule train traveling north through canyon systems, crossing the Mogollon highlands, and reaching the vicinity of the San Francisco Peaks before concealing a cache of silver. Rather than attempting historical verification, this study tests whether the described movement is consistent with environmental constraints. A raster-based cost surface was developed using slope derived from 30-meter digital elevation models and distance to hydrologic features, weighted to reflect mule transport limitations. Cost-distance and least-cost path analyses were used to simulate movement toward Santa Fe, NM and identify terrain-constrained travel corridors. Results indicate that movement across the region is highly constrained, with travel funneled into a limited number of low-cost corridors controlled by terrain and water availability, particularly along the Mogollon Rim. These corridors align with the narrative’s reference to a “pass of the Mogollones” and canyon-based movement toward the San Francisco Peaks where the cache was hidden en route to Santa Fe, NM. When additional constraints are applied, the model identifies a small number of concentrated zones south of the peaks as the most plausible areas for the Spanish silver cache. These findings demonstrate that GIS can be used to evaluate narrative plausibility as a spatial problem.
