Behavioral vs. Opportunistic Crime in Denver: A Spatiotemporal Analysis
Presentation Time: Wed, 08/06/2025 - 10:30
Keywords: Denver, Crime Patterns, Behavioral Crime, Opportunistic Crime, GIS, Spatiotemporal Analysis
Understanding how different types of crime respond to major societal changes is essential for developing and improving public safety strategies and allocating resources effectively. This project examines spatial and temporal patterns in reported crime across the City and County of Denver, Colorado, from 2019 to 2024, focusing on shifts before and after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. Denver City and County boundaries are unified, ensuring consistent jurisdictional coverage and data reliability. Crimes are categorized into two broad types: behavioral offenses, such as assault and domestic violence; and opportunistic offenses, such as burglary and theft. Comparing these categories provides insight into how offender motivations may vary in response to external pressures such as lockdowns, economic instability, and reduced public activity. Using geocoded incident data aggregated at the census tract level, this study applies geographic information systems (GIS) to map and analyze changes in crime distribution and frequency over time. The analysis reveals shifts in the spatial patterns and prevalence of both behavioral and opportunistic crime types, highlighting temporal changes linked to the COVID-19 pandemic. These findings demonstrate how large-scale social disruptions can influence criminal behavior and emphasize the need for adaptable, data-driven strategies in urban safety planning. This analytical model is designed to remain adaptable to other temporal patterns that may emerge.
