Predicting Areas of Debris Flows in Recently Burned Areas Using Precipitation Forecasts
Presentation Time: Thu, 05/01/2025 - 11:30
Keywords: debris flow, precipitation, burn area, slope, water catchment
Debris flows are common in Southern California, particularly in burned areas following a wildfire. This project predicts and informs about potential areas where a debris flow is likely to occur in the 10 counties of Southern California. Using digital elevation model data from the United States Geological Survey (USGS) and water catchment data from the United States Geological Survey’s Elevation Derivatives for National Applications (EDNA) database, the average slope in each water catchment was determined, as debris flows follow the flow direction in the catchment. Using the National Interagency Fire Center’s fire perimeter data, recently burned areas were identified, as they are more susceptible to debris flows due to the lack of vegetation holding the soil in place. Additionally, the National Weather Service’s National Digital Forecast Database was used to track predicted rainfall accumulation over 72 hours. This live data updates in 6-hour intervals, closely monitoring the expected precipitation. A model was created to analyze the data and make predictions on what is considered a no risk, low risk, medium risk, and high risk area. An ArcGIS Dashboard was developed to publicize the data, providing information about areas prone to debris flows, aiding in evacuations, and assisting utility crews with prevention and cleanup measures.
